NHTSA Proposal Will Require Different MPG for Different Companies

The NHTSA proposal to increase fuel economy standards by 2015 to 31.6 mpg keeps getting stranger. As analysts wade through the (over) 400 ...

The NHTSA proposal to increase fuel economy standards by 2015 to 31.6 mpg keeps getting stranger. As analysts wade through the (over) 400 page document, the following little tidbit has been discovered. It seems that because car manufacturers have different mixes of vehicle sizes, and the new rules are being set based on size of the car (footprint), each manufacturer will end up with a different standard to pass before they face any penalties.

Required CAFE Levels (mpg) for Passenger Cars

Manufacturer MY 2011 MY 2012 MY 2013 MY 2014 MY 2015
BMW 33.3 35 36 36.8 37.7
Chrysler 28.7 29.3 32.2 32.6 33.6
Ferrari 30.4 32 33.1 33.9 34.9
Ford 31 32.7 33.7 34.5 35.5
Fuji (Subaru) 36.9 38.7 39.6 40.1 40.8
General Motors 30 31.7 32.8 33.7 34.7
Honda 32.1 33.8 34.8 35.5 36.4
Hyundai 33.4 35.1 36 36.7 37.5
Lotus 38.1 40 40.8 41.2 41.7
Maserati 28.9 30.6 31.8 32.8 34
Mercedes 31.7 33.3 34.4 35.3 36.2
Mitsubishi 33 35.1 35.9 37 37.9
Nissan 31.2 33.2 34.2 35 35.9
Porsche 37.6 39.4 40.3 40.7 41.3
Suzuki 37.3 39.2 40.1 40.6 41.2
Toyota 30.1 31.5 32.7 33.6 34.6
Volkswagen 35.4 37.2 38.2 38.8 39.5
Total/Average 31.2 32.8 34 34.8 35.7


Required CAFE Levels (mpg) for Light Trucks

Manufacturer MY 2011 MY 2012 MY 2013 MY 2014 MY 2015
BMW 28.2 29.9 31.2 31.4 31.7
Chrysler 25.2 26.6 28 28.5 29.1
Ford 24.7 26.1 28 28.3 28.8
Fuji (Subaru) 30 31.7 33.1 33.2 33.4
General Motors 23.9 25.4 26.5 27 27.4
Honda 26.1 27.7 28.9 29.2 29.6
Hyundai 27.5 29.1 30.4 30.6 31
Mercedes 28.4 30.1 31.4 31.6 31.9
Mitsubishi 29.4 30.8 32.2 32.3 32.6
Nissan 24.9 26.2 27.3 27.7 28.2
Porsche 25.9 27.4 28.7 29 29.4
Suzuki 30.3 32.1 33.5 33.5 33.7
Toyota 24.9 26 27.2 27.6 28
Volkswagen 26.2 27.8 29 29.3 29.7
Total/Average 25 26.4 27.8 28.2 28.6


As you can see, the larger companies, because of their mix of cars, are going to have lower standards to pass than the smaller companies. Lotus, for instance, will need to get up over 38.1 mpg in 2011, while at the other end of the spectrum, Chrysler only has to get 28.7 mpg.

The NHTSA estimates that if each manufacturer meets the minimum requirements each year, they industry wide average for mpg will reach 31.6 mpg by MY 2015.

MY 2011: 27.8 mpg
MY 2012: 29.2 mpg
MY 2013: 30.5 mpg
MY 2014: 31.0 mpg
MY 2015: 31.6 mpg

The proposal also outlines the ways the manufacturers could meet their obligations, specifically, by using fuel saving technologies. The NHTSA estimates the mix of technologies could look like the following for the seven major manufacturers by MY 2015. The following table shows both an average and a maximum value of technology penetration.

Estimated Technology Penetration Rates in MY2015 for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks


Average Among Seven Largest Manufacturers Maximum Among Seven Largest Manufacturers
Passenger Cars Product Plan Adjusted Baseline Under Proposed Standard Product Plan Adjusted Baseline Under Proposed Standard
Automatically Shifted Manual Transmission 10% 10% 39% 59% 59% 86%
Spark Ignited Direct Injection 22% 22% 30% 76% 76% 82%
Turbocharging & Engine Downsizing 5% 5% 17% 11% 11% 51%
Diesel Engine 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5%
Hybrid Electric Vehicles 5% 5% 15% 14% 14% 19%
Light Trucks





Automatically Shifted Manual Transmission 10% 14% 55% 41% 41% 72%
Spark Ignited Direct Injection 23% 24% 40% 46% 46% 73%
Turbocharging & Engine Downsizing 9% 11% 31% 32% 32% 44%
Diesel Engine 3% 6% 10% 7% 29% 45%
Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2% 6% 25% 5% 13% 32%


I'm very surprised to see the low rates for diesel cars, but not by the high rate of hybrid electric vehicles being projected.

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